Ukraine has seen a sharp decline in the tonnage of arrivals to its seaports, sinking by nearly 30% compared to the same period last year, in what analysts say is another sign of how three years of full-scale conflict have undermined the country’s agricultural export capabilities.
Key Figures & Trends
Between January and mid-2025, Ukrainian ports handled around 40 million tonnes of cargo, including approximately 20.3 million tonnes of agricultural goods such as grains and oilseeds. The decline is largely driven by reduced harvest outputs and limited access to key port facilities, with only about 10 out of Ukraine’s 18 seaports currently under full Ukrainian control.
What’s Causing the Drop
Several interlinked factors explain the almost 30% slump:
- Port Damage and Restricted Access
Multiple port facilities in Mykolaiv, Kherson, Olvia, and Bilhorod-Dnistrovskyi remain either non-operational or are functioning at reduced capacity due to ongoing Russian attacks, blockades, and insecurity in adjacent sea lanes. - Reduced Agricultural Output
Conflict-related disruptions have slashed Ukraine’s harvest volumes. Large tracts of farmland lie within conflict zones, while damage to infrastructure—such as storage facilities, transport links, and agricultural machinery—has further constrained production. - Alternative Export Routes Under Stress
With seaports constrained, Ukraine is relying increasingly on river and rail routes, including the Danube corridor and overland passages through neighboring countries. While these routes have proven valuable, they are costlier, slower, and less efficient for handling bulk grain exports. - Cost, Logistics, and Insurance Pressures
The cost of shipping from ports exposed to conflict remains high due to elevated insurance premiums and risk surcharges. Vessel safety concerns and infrastructure damage continue to discourage operators, limiting overall throughput.
Implications for Grain Exports & Global Food Security
The decline in port arrivals directly impacts Ukraine’s grain exports—once a lifeline for global food security. Reduced supply to international markets has placed upward pressure on grain prices, particularly affecting import-dependent regions in Africa and the Middle East.
Economists warn that the sustained downturn in export volumes could erode Ukraine’s foreign exchange earnings, undermine its balance of trade, and slow down the nation’s economic recovery. The cumulative impact extends beyond Ukraine, with ripple effects across global commodity chains and food markets.
Possible Signs of Recovery
Despite the decline, there are cautious signs of resilience. Operational ports, including those on the Danube, continue to process agricultural shipments, and new export corridors have been developed to offset seaport losses. Reconstruction and protection efforts for key port infrastructure are also underway, offering hope of gradual recovery if security conditions improve.
Conclusion
Nearly three years into its full-scale war, Ukraine’s port operations remain under severe strain. A 30% decline in tonnage arrivals year-on-year is more than just a statistic—it reflects lost harvests, damaged logistics, and restricted trade routes. The effects stretch far beyond Ukraine’s borders, influencing global food prices and supply stability. Restoring port functionality and securing maritime access will be essential steps toward rebuilding the country’s agricultural export capacity and re-establishing its role as a key player in global grain trade.
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