September 25, 2025
The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) has sounded a warning over growing uncertainty and heightened volatility in global shipping, pointing to cost pressures and supply chain disruptions that continue to shape the industry’s outlook.
In its latest maritime trade assessment, UNCTAD noted that geopolitical tensions, environmental regulations, and structural shifts in global trade flows are weighing heavily on carriers and shippers alike. The organization highlighted that freight rates remain unpredictable, with energy price fluctuations and regional instability contributing to higher operating costs.
UNCTAD further observed that while containerized trade volumes are slowly recovering from pandemic-era shocks, congestion at major ports, persistent labour disputes, and the redirection of vessels around conflict-prone waters have kept logistics fragile. Added to this, stricter decarbonization rules are forcing shipowners to rethink fleet deployment and invest in greener technologies, which in turn adds to capital and compliance expenses.
“The shipping industry is operating in an environment of unprecedented uncertainty,” UNCTAD stressed, noting that volatility is not just cyclical but structural, shaped by long-term geopolitical and environmental challenges.
According to the agency, developing economies that rely heavily on imports and exports are particularly exposed to higher shipping costs, raising concerns about inflationary effects and reduced trade competitiveness.
Analysts suggest that collaborative approaches—such as multilateral agreements on emissions standards, regional port efficiency initiatives, and investment in digital trade facilitation—could help mitigate some of the pressures. Still, with rising protectionism and the ongoing risk of supply chain fragmentation, the road ahead for global shipping is expected to remain turbulent.
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